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Worries over the impact of adverse external factors like US import tariffs and the Brexit decision on Polish export and investment growth remain.

In 2020 household consumption is expected to accelerate, sustained by further decreasing unemployment, low inflation, and a minimum wage increase.

The economy is highly integrated into international value chains, making it vulnerable to major foreign trade losses, especially in the automotive sector.

The forint remains vulnerable to international investors’ sentiment due to the elevated external and public debt levels and institutional issues.

As the economy is reliant on automotive-related exports to the Eurozone, especially to Germany, it is vulnerable to adverse developments in the industry.

The currency is subject to some volatility, and the country is vulnerable to capital outflows should there be adverse internal or external developments.

Political instability remains an issue for the long-term economic growth prospects, while corruption and red tape still hamper the business environment.

Despite a modest economic rebound the business performance and credit risk situation of several industries remains strained, especially in Dubai.

Beside deterioration of payment behaviour in the private sector, the number of payment delays in larger projects dependent on government funding is still high.

In 2019 and 2020 growth is expected to exceed 5%, supported by exchange rate liberalization, interest rate normalisation and increasing tourist arrivals.