Publications

Overcapacity remains the main challenge, as the rebalancing of the economy from investment and export-driven growth towards private consumption continues.

The steel and metals sector remains resilient for the time being, but the market environment is turning increasingly difficult with more downside risks.

Demand from construction and automotive as key buyer sectors has been robust in 2017, and steel price increases have been pushed through the supply chain.

While in general insolvencies are not expected to rise sharply, an increase in business failures in Puerto Rico and the Houston area cannot be ruled out.

Both the rebound of steel and metals prices and increased domestic demand have helped to improve margins in 2017, which nevertheless remain tight.

Export orientation and diversification are key factors for business success in a business environment characterised by overcapacity and volatile prices.

Due to a high non-performing assets level banks remain reluctant to provide loans, and external financing at competitive conditions remains a challenge.

While the profit margin development is generally stable competition remains high with Asian steel and metals businesses on international markets.

While the outlook for late 2017 and 2018 remains positive, due to overcapacity there is on-going price pressure in most segments, affecting margins.

Production has increased again in 2017, but competitiveness of the domestic steel and metals industry remains negatively impacted by high power costs.

Payment experience has been good over the past two years, and steel and metals insolvencies decreased in 2016, with a stable outlook for 2017 and 2018.

Banks have generally tightened their lending policies for steel businesses due to the fierce competitive environment and still subdued domestic demand.

Revenues of the engineering services industry have rebounded since 2015 as greater liquidity in financial markets helped to boost construction spending.

While UK business insolvencies are forecast to increase in 2017 and 2018, the machinery sector is not expected to follow this deteriorating trend.

Lower demand from key buyer industries and high overcapacity has led to decreasing net profit margins for some businesses over the last two years.

Profit margins have increased over the last 12 months due to the benign business environment, however, a slight decline cannot be ruled out in the future.

Profit margins of machinery businesses rebounded in 2016 and are expected to improve further, but competition remains strong in the domestic market.

As competition is fierce in the domestic market price wars cannot be ruled out, particularly among businesses operating in the lower quality segment.

Key success factors for Danish machinery businesses remains their ability to streamline costs and investment in product development/new technology.

The general outlook remains positive, and margins are relatively high, especially in niche segments. However,competition from China is increasing.

Payment behaviour has been good over the last two years and the number of payment delays, defaults and insolvencies is expected to remain low in 2017.

Due to deteriorated results and margins, as well as increased payment delays and insolvencies our underwriting stance remains restrictive for the sector.

After a minor decrease from 45.0% in 2015 to 44.3% in 2016, the percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Asia Pacific increased again this year to 45.4%.

China’s proportion of domestic and foreign past due B2B invoices is almost in line with the regional average and has increased compared to last year.

The proportion of domestic and foreign past due B2B invoices in Taiwan (domestic: 42.7%; foreign: 47.2%) is almost in line with the regional averages.

The proportion of domestic and foreign past due B2B invoices in Hong Kong (domestic: 50.0%; foreign: 50.3%) is higher than that recorded at regional level.

With an average of 53.4%, India had the highest proportion of domestic and foreign past due B2B invoices of all the Asia Pacific countries surveyed.

The percentage of Australian respondents reporting domestic and foreign late payments in 2017 (88.1%) has increased compared to last year (84.0%).

In 2017, Indonesian respondents reported an increased percentage of domestic and foreign overdue B2B invoices (domestic: 45.1% and foreign: 41.2%).

The total value of B2B sales on credit in Japan increased this year to 53.7%. Of the Asia Pacific countries surveyed, Japan was the most credit-friendly.

Late payments from domestic and foreign B2B customers were reported more frequently by respondents in Singapore than by their peers in Asia Pacific.

GDP is forecast to increase by more than 3% in 2017 and 2018, as household spending is spurred by low interest rates and an improving labour market.

Private consumption is driven by wage growth while export growth is driven by Eurozone demand and the country´s improved international competitiveness.

Hungary´s economic growth is expected to rebound in 2017 and 2018 after a slowdown in 2016, but the high level of external debt remains a major weakness.

Despite further growth, Poland is susceptible to a potential end of the Eurozone recovery. Adverse economic policies could dampen investor sentiment.

GDP is expected to grow 4.2% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018, driven strong private consumption and rising investments including structural funds from the EU.

Despite the current rebound the long-term prospect for higher growth rates is subdued due to structural weaknesses and the negative impact of sanctions.

Growth is expected to remain above 3% in 2017 and 2018, but the economy remains vulnerable to adverse developments in the automotive sector.

GDP growth is robust, but risks in the banking and corporate sectors have increased while high dependence on capital inflow remains a major vulnerability.

In 2017, 92.7% of respondents in Brazil reported late payments from their domestic B2B customers and 86.5% in respect to their foreign B2B customers.

After a minor increase from 47.6% in 2015 to 48.4% in 2016, the percentage of overdue B2B invoices appears to be flattening out, rising to 48.8% in 2017.

The short-term outlook remains satisfying, but Brexit will surely have a major impact on domestic car sales and British car exports in the mid-term.

Besides the risk of a sales downturn, the economic policies of the Trump administration could pose a potential challenge for the US car industry.

As more and more carmakers rush to enter into the electric and hybrid car segment, annual capacity in China is about to exceed 7 million units by 2020.

Automotive suppliers´ margins remain structurally under pressure, as the powerful car manufacturers demand greater productivity, coupled with lower prices.

The level of insolvencies in the automotive sector is low compared to other Italian industries, and business failures are expected not to increase in 2017.

A large number of small supplier businesses could face higher business and credit risks in the future as margins have declined and challenges increase.

The automotive sector faces decreasing domestic sales due to a decrease in population and a growing share of elderly citizens as well as tax hikes.

The Spanish automotive industry continues to benefit from the on-going economic rebound of the domestic economy as well as from increasing car exports.

The increasing importance of Big Data and embedded technology/electronics is expected to lead to increased M&A activities in the supplier segment.