Publications

The adoption of a pension reform that provides savings of at least 600-700 billion reais is key to keep public debt sustainable and to sustain invertors’ confidence in the long-term.

Coupled with high interest rates of more than 60% austerity measures will deepen and lengthen the economic contraction, and a rebound expected in late 2019 at the earliest.

Shock resistance is strong due to prudent economic and financial policies, but a serious disturbance of global trade by protectionism would hurt exports.

GDP is forecast to grow about 3% annually, driven by higher oil prices, investments and consumption, but concerns about the fiscal deficit remain an issue.

Main risks to the outlook are a hard landing of the Chinese economy and social unrest in the mining sector, which could affect the investment climate.

Higher costs of raw materials and import tariffs have increased operational costs and reduced overall profitability in the household appliances segment.

The UK sales outlook for consumer durables in 2019 is more subdued as household finances are strained and private consumption growth is decreasing.

Insolvencies are expected to level off or to increase slightly in 2019, in line with the forecast of a modest 2% increase in Dutch business failures.

Many smaller retailers lack the flexibility and financial means to adapt business models to changing consumer habits, and the credit risk remains elevated.

Retailers´ margins are expected to decrease further due to the fierce competitive market environment in most segments and increased price transparency.